When You Strike at a King...

by Libby Sternberg

When you strike at a king, you must kill him.

Wisconsin's  public sector unions and Democrats are surely giving serious thought to this pearl of wisdom from Ralph Waldo Emerson. They tried to strike at "a king" -- Republicans who had spearheaded budget-conscious legislation that affected collective bargaining and pensions for public employees -- and they failed.

As reported earlier, Democrats and unions did get on the ballot six recall elections for Republican legislators in the aftermath of the debate over changes to public pensions and collective bargaining. But they weren't successful in "killing the king" of GOP dominance. They only took two of the six seats, which means the Republicans still hang on to a hair-thin majority in the state Senate. While the Democrats did hang on to two Democratic seats up for recall, too, this feels more like status quo maintenance than victory, since it didn't result in increasing the Dem percentage in the legislature.

And now they face a big question -- do they proceed with a recall of Governor Scott Walker?

That answer might have been clearer before the recall elections that just took place. In the spring, public polling on this question showed that 50 percent of those polled supported a recall of Gov. Walker, compared to 47 percent who opposed.

However, those numbers flipped exactly after the legislative recall elections. Now, 50 percent of those polled oppose a recall of the governor, while 47 percent support it, according to Public Policy Polling, the firm that did the polling on the question in May, as well.

Taking Gov. Walker out of the governor's seat would be a huge victory for Democrats and union supporters. But if Gov. Walker kept his seat in a recall election, it would be a far bigger victory for Republicans. It would demonstrate that the general Wisconsin electorate is more on their side than on the Democrats' side. It would demonstrate that the Democrats are weak, perhaps just an angry mob (remember those images from Madison?) full of bluster but no bite.

Failing to "strike at the king" successfully in this case would weaken Democrats enormously. And they and their public sector union allies have already been weakened. If I were advising them, I'd suggest they keep their powder dry and look for good candidates to run in the general elections.

But hey, I'm sure they're not listening to me. And if they do decide to "strike at a king" again and fail, all the better for those interested in pubic sector employee reform.

Crying Wolf

by Libby Sternberg

You would have thought, watching the protests in Wisconsin months ago, that the sky was falling on the Badger State, due to the draconian budget policies of new Governor Scott Walker. The atmosphere was so steamy that it led to recall elections for six state legislators.

Now the results are in, and Republicans managed to hang on to four of the six seats that were up for recall, which means they also retain, by the slimmest of margins, control of their state Senate.

Is the glass half full or half empty for the Democrats and their union supporters who pushed for the recalls? One could argue that they didn't do poorly. They did, after all, manage to get the recall elections moving, no small feat. And they did win two of the six seats.

But in politics, perception is reality. The Democrats set out to win back control of the state Senate. They didn't get it. They pushed for the recall elections with a passionate cry of "wolf, wolf!" -- Gov. Walker's (and Republicans') policies were set to devour comfort and peace in cities, towns, municipalities, individual homes.

The problem is....there was no wolf. Or, as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (no conservative bastion) put it: The "sky isn't falling."

In fact, in an editorial posted online yesterday, the leading grafs were:

So it turns out that the sky isn't going to fall on all local governments in Wisconsin. The numbers now starting to come in show that Gov. Scott Walker's "tools" for local governments apparently will help at least some of them deal with cuts in state aid imposed by the state budget.

That's contrary to the expectation and the rhetoric of critics in the spring, and it's to Walker's credit. It bears out the governor's assessment of his budget-repair bill, although we still maintain he could have reached his goals without dealing a body blow to public employee unions.

The Journal didn't support (and still doesn't) Gov. Walker's policy on collective bargaining, by the way.

So, the Democrats didn't get the state Senate back, and their main point -- that the Republican policies were too extreme -- finds a dissenter in a major editorial.

Even with the two recall wins they did manage to rack up, Democrats still have the whiff of defeat about them. On the Morning Joe show today, even liberal radio host Bill Press acknowledged as much. They lost.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this means the Republicans now have the wind at their back.