A meditation on Greece

by Leslie S. Lebl

For any of our readers who worry about what's going on in Greece, here's a little background and historical perspective.

Greece actually has two problems: First, its government spends more than it takes in and has, as a result, run up a huge debt. Add to that strict labor laws and generous social benefits, and you end up with a bloated public sector, full pensions for hairdressers who retire at 50, and so on.

That would already be bad enough, but Greece has an additional problem: it's a member of the eurozone. As its internal crisis unfolded, the EU has sought to 'bail out' Greece. The EU wants to ward off default while paying as much as possible to Greece's foreign creditors in hopes of keeping the euro from getting a bad name.

The result: for two years Greeks have been hit with all kinds of austerity measures yet still face a huge debt. Kinda the worst of both worlds, especially when you look at this chart. Only 19 cents of every euro given to bail out Greece goes to the Greek government; the rest goes to creditors.

Just a short while ago, the EU demanded that Greece accept a new prime minister acceptable to the EU. Greece complied, but of course that didn't solve the problem. Now Germany, the EU's financial strongman, has proposed that Greek financial decisions be turned over to EU authorities. In other words, bye-bye to any remnants of Greek democracy. Naturally, Greeks are protesting in the streets, burning the German flag and shouting 'Nazis out.' (Other EU member states also oppose this idea, unsurprisingly, as some of them also risk default.)

In the past, creditor countries have taken over countries that defaulted on their debts. This happened in 1882, when Great Britain invaded Egypt and made it a protectorate. In 1905, President Teddy Roosevelt persuaded the Dominican Republic to let the United States manage its tariff collections, so as to forestall any action by European creditors. The United States didn't invade - probably, after the Spanish-American war, it wasn't necessary.

In other words, it usually requires force or the threat of force to take over another country's finances. Maybe the EU has found another way to accomplish this goal, but I doubt it.
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A retired Foreign Service Officer, Leslie S. Lebl is a writer, consultant and lecturer. In the Foreign Service, Ms. Lebl served as Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs at the U.S. Mission to the European Union in Brussels. Prior to that, she was Political Advisor to the Commander of Stabilization Forces (SFOR) in Bosnia-Herzegovina, first in the American sector in Tuzla and then at SFOR headquarters in Sarajevo. Other assignments included Russia, the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in New York, Bolivia, Germany and Poland, as well as a year as diplomat-in-residence at Yale University. She speaks French, German, Russian, Polish and Spanish. She is currently at work on a book about radical Islam and the European Union.

The Tea Party Is Still Winning

by Leslie S. Lebl

Like many, I've been reading all about the decline of the Tea Party, its relative invisibility in the Republican nominating process, and the widespread dissatisfaction with Republican members of Congress, many of whom were swept into office by the Tea Party. However, I'd like to add my two bits to the discussion before we hold a public funeral for the movement. 

Of course the Tea Party is quiet: none of the candidates really speak to them. It's discouraging, but on the other hand, look at it this way:

-- which Republican nominee would speak in favor of retaining Obamacare?

-- which Republican nominee is prepared to say that the federal debt isn't important?

You got it - none of them. That's because the Tea Party has succeeded in highlighting problems that can no longer be swept under the rug. Look what happened when Gingrich denigrated Paul Ryan's budget proposal, which contains the first public commitment to reform Medicare (and which was passed by the Republican House of Representatives). He had to eat crow.

What I find really interesting is that so many people (among them, I assume, many Tea Partiers) are focusing on electability. That's a bitter lesson learned in 2010, and it's clear people don't want to repeat the mistakes made then, especially with regard to key Senate races. That, folks, is real progress.

As for the low favorability numbers of Republicans in Congress: who would ever expect the guy trying to stop the spending to become popular? Look at Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin: he's facing a recall vote even though he saved lots of union jobs. The real lesson Tea Partiers have learned is that House Republicans can't make much headway resisting every bill raising the debt ceiling. While I suspect many people are disappointed, I'm confident that the majority understand that what's needed is systemic entitlement reform, which can't be done by only one House of Congress.

My prediction: as the Republican nominating process advances, watch the frontrunners come under pressure to formulate policies attractive to the Tea Party, hopefully framed in ways that attract support from Independents. The Tea Party may not have its nominee, but it will try to shape the platform of the party and persuade the nominee to espouse its positions. And it will have logic on its side. With U.S. obligations downgraded and our debt now equal to our GDP, it's pretty hard to argue that the level of government spending isn't a problem.

Only if the Tea Party fails to do this will I agree that it is a spent political force.
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A retired Foreign Service Officer, Leslie S. Lebl is a writer, consultant and lecturer. In the Foreign Service, Ms. Lebl served as Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs at the U.S. Mission to the European Union in Brussels. Prior to that, she was Political Advisor to the Commander of Stabilization Forces (SFOR) in Bosnia-Herzegovina, first in the American sector in Tuzla and then at SFOR headquarters in Sarajevo. Other assignments included Russia, the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in New York, Bolivia, Germany and Poland, as well as a year as diplomat-in-residence at Yale University. She speaks French, German, Russian, Polish and Spanish. She is currently at work on a book about radical Islam and the European Union.

Good-bye and Good Riddance

by Leslie Lebl

Well, thank heavens! The Super Committee just committed suicide, so we will no longer be subjected to ridiculous news stories about it. Who, aside from credulous newscasters and pundits, would ever have thought that 12 members of Congress, completely abandoned by a spendthrift president, would somehow make the difficult decisions on how to cut over $1 trillion? Especially when that same president had already ignored the conclusions of the bipartisan commission that he himself appointed?

So let's get real: such decisions are not meant to be made by 12 people meeting behind closed doors, but by the American public at large. And that exercise - known as "elections" - will take place next November. If in the meantime we receive another downgrade, there's no cause for surprise. After all, our national spending is out of control.